Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 20.753381 24.961649 29.593276 35.041091 41.244444 48.059177 56.081641
2025-08-17 14.605506 20.106467 26.783435 35.359745 45.950379 58.464393 74.222648
2025-08-24 10.962028 16.863193 24.609283 35.251719 49.199595 66.552532 89.435806
2025-08-31 8.184892 13.978340 22.149841 34.065497 50.497980 71.837935 101.052943
2025-09-07 6.709148 12.550666 21.310233 34.726120 53.998868 79.882711 116.353424
2025-09-14 5.265001 10.831886 19.718472 34.007955 55.363310 84.973058 127.829527
2025-09-21 4.466372 9.986905 19.284965 34.855808 58.888833 93.073576 143.613325
2025-09-28 3.398671 8.412718 17.416042 33.221829 58.528804 95.568877 151.627879
2025-10-05 2.981079 7.973001 17.374574 34.455131 62.527045 104.445822 168.927297
2025-10-12 2.577678 7.466016 17.126926 35.283637 65.892129 112.487283 185.278332
2025-10-19 2.219413 6.968794 16.815136 35.940321 68.975183 120.188283 201.360798
2025-10-26 1.924048 6.542033 16.569339 36.663677 72.169354 128.145975 218.052679
2025-11-02 1.526564 5.783692 15.613105 36.125232 73.434347 133.514142 231.622880
2025-11-09 1.262155 5.295847 15.150206 36.474938 76.264454 141.530528 249.640261
2025-11-16 1.016133 4.767062 14.498099 36.365937 78.246781 148.234000 265.832274
2025-11-23 0.760467 4.090659 13.369179 35.150469 78.119407 151.439540 276.609200
2025-11-30 0.640231 3.823388 13.173744 35.827483 81.468612 160.499572 296.919814
2025-12-07 0.488225 3.353174 12.365759 35.091506 82.095633 164.973135 309.984133
2025-12-14 0.415942 3.174003 12.295257 35.960380 85.819267 174.844716 332.077938
2025-12-21 0.290440 2.657918 11.166121 34.285787 84.452035 175.826352 339.594073
2025-12-28 0.254689 2.575508 11.291489 35.549783 88.983729 187.292913 364.791803
2026-01-04 0.215699 2.446701 11.248288 36.398773 92.711753 197.449609 388.059555
2026-01-11 0.179708 2.306642 11.139870 37.071619 96.104819 207.109196 410.732417